Chyu et al reported several models for survival for patients with heart failure. These can identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the University of Washington and the University of California Los Angeles.
Patient selection: heart failure
Models: male, female, combined
Parameters for the combined model:
(1) B-type natriuretic peptide
(2) peak oxygen consumption during cardiopulmonary exercise testing (pkVO2)
(3) NYHA class
(4) use of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB)
Parameter
Finding
Points
ACEI or ARB use
no
0
yes
-0.674253
peak oxygen
> 20 mL per kg per min
0
16-20
0.181266
10-16
0.58520695
6-10
0.76482202
< 6
1.1921918
missing
1.34628994
BNP in pg/mL
0.461502 * LN(BNP)
NYHA class
I
0
II
0.541975
III
0.799275
IV
1.247278
score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
survival(t) =
= EXP(-0.00221 * t * EXP(score))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.79.
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