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Formula of Croce et al to Predict the Probability of Developing Ventilatory-Associated Pneumonia After Trauma

Purpose: To predict the probability of developing ventilator associated pneumonia in a trauma patient using the formula of Croce et al.

Description

Croce et al developed a formula for predicting the probability of developing ventilator-associated pneumonia in a trauma patient. This formula uses parameters available shortly after admission, which means that high risk patients can be identified early. The authors are from the University of Tennessee in Memphis.


Criteria for ventilator associated pneumonia: >= 10^5 CFU per mL in BAL fluid

 

Parameters:

(1) mechanism of injury

(2) Glasgow coma score (GCS)

(3) spinal cord injury (SCI)

(4) Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) for chest trauma

(5) emergent laparotomy

(6) Injury Severity Score (ISS)

(7) units of blood transfused during resuscitation

(8) intubation

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

mechanism of injury

blunt

0

 

penetrating

1

Glasgow Coma Score

 

spinal cord injury

no

0

 

yes

1

AIS chest

 

emergent laparotomy

no

0

 

yes

1

Injury Severity Score (ISS)

 

blood transfusion

 

intubation

no

0

 

yes

1

 

X =

= (1.37 * (points for spinal cord injury)) - (1.56 * (points for mechanism of injury)) - (0.12 * (points for GCS)) + (0.30 * (points for chest AIS)) + (1.87 * (points for laparotomy)) + (0.67 * (points for units of blood transfused)) + (0.05 * (points for ISS)) + (0.66 * (points for intubation)) - 3.08

 

probability =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10