FLAMES Score of Gomez et al for Predicting Mortality of a Burn Patient

FLAMES = fatality by longevity, APACHE II score, measured extent of burn, and sex

Parameters:

(1) points for gender (0 if female, 1 if male)

(2) age in years

(3) APACHE II score on day 1

(4) percent of body surface area (BSA) with full thickness burn (from 0 to 100)

(5) percent of body surface area (BSA) partial thickness burn (from 0 to 100)

X =

= (0.045 * (age in years)) - (1.214 * (points for gender)) + (0.157 * (APACHE II score)) + (0.104 * (percent full thickness)) + (0.062 * (percent partial thickness)) - 8.285

probability of death =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

Performance:

• The sensitivity is 47% and specificity 98% at a cutoff of 50% mortality rate in the validation population. In Table 5 the mortality rate was 9-10%.

• The overall accuracy was 93% in the validation population.

• The AUC was 0.97 in the derivation population and 0.93 in the validation population.