Solomon et al reported the Expanded Risk Score in Rheumatoid Arthritis (ERS-RA) for predicting 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in an adult with rheumatoid arthritis. The authors are from multiple institutions in the United States and Canada.
Patient selection: rheumatoid arthritis, from 20 to 80 years of age
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) smoking
(4) diabetes
(5) hyperlipidemia
(6) hypertension
(7) duration of rheumatoid arthritis
(8) Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI), from 0 to 76
(9) modified Health Assessment Questionnaire, Disability Index (mHAQ-DI)
(10) therapy with prednisone
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
< 40 years
0
40 to 44 years
0.0343
45 to 49 years
0.0801
50 to 54 years
1.2099
55 to 59 years
1.2977
60 to 64 years
1.5922
65 to 69 years
2.0880
70 to 74 years
2.2187
>= 75 years
2.76
sex
female
0
male
0.5525
smoking
no
0
yes
0.8686
diabetes
no
0
yes
0.4207
hyperlipidemia
no
0
yes
0.3229
hypertension
no
0
yes
0.2056
duration RA
<= 10 years
0
> 10 years
0.3563
CDAI
<= 10
0
> 10
0.2776
mHAQ-DI
<= 0.5
0
> 0.5
0.1644
prednisone therapy
no
0
yes
0.4758
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in percent =
= 100% * (1 - (0.99395^EXP(score)))
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