Garcia-Gutierrez et al reported the ESSIC-FEHF score to predict short-term mortality for a patient a first episode of heart failure. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from multiple institutions in Spain.
ESSIC = acronym for Spanish name meaning Assessment of Health Services in Heart Failure
FEHF = first episode of heart failure
Patient selection: de novo acute heart failure
Outcome: short-term mortality (in next 2 months)
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF)
(3) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg
(4) serum sodium in mmol/L
(5) serum BUN in mg/dL
(6) right ventricular failure
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
< 80 years
0
>= 80 years
6
LVEF
preserved
0
reduced
5
systolic blood pressure
< 135 mm Hg
4
>= 135 mm Hg
0
serum sodium
< 135 mmol/L
6
>= 135 mmol/L
0
serum BUN
>= 17.47 mg/dL
5
< 17.48 mg/dL
0
right ventricular failure
no
0
yes
10
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 36
Total Score
Risk Category
Mortality
<= 9
low
2-4%
10 to 12
intermediate
6-9%
> 12
high
20-27%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.80.
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