Orozco-Beltran et al reported a score for predicting the risk of atrial fibrillation in a hypertensive patient. The authors are from multiple institutions in Spain participating in the ESCARVAL (Estudio Cardiometabolico Valenciano) Risk Study
Patient selection: hypertensive adult from 40 to 94 years of age
Outcome: atrial fibrillation
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square meter
(4) congestive heart failure (CHF)
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
age in years |
40 to 44 years |
-2 |
|
45 to 49 years |
-1 |
|
50 to 54 years |
0 |
|
55 to 59 years |
1 |
|
60 to 64 years |
2 |
|
65 to 69 years |
3 |
|
70 to 74 years |
4 |
|
75 to 79 years |
5 |
|
80 to 84 years |
6 |
|
85 to 89 years |
7 |
|
90 to 94 years |
8 |
sex |
female |
0 |
|
male |
2 |
BMI |
< 25 kg per sq m |
0 |
|
25 to 30 kg per sq m |
1 |
|
30.01 to 35 kg per sq m |
1 |
|
> 35 kg per sq m |
3 |
CHF |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
3 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: -2
• maximum score: 16
Total Score |
Risk |
<= 0 |
< 0.5% |
1 |
0.7% |
2 |
1% |
3 |
1.3% |
4 |
1.8% |
5 |
2.5% |
6 |
3.3% |
7 |
4.5% |
8 |
6.1% |
9 |
8.3% |
10 |
11.1% |
11 |
14.8% |
12 |
19.6% |
13 |
25.7% |
14 |
33.3% |
15 |
42.4% |
16 |
52.8% |
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.69.
Specialty: Cardiology