Orozco-Beltran et al reported a score for predicting the risk of atrial fibrillation in a hypertensive patient. The authors are from multiple institutions in Spain participating in the ESCARVAL (Estudio Cardiometabolico Valenciano) Risk Study
Patient selection: hypertensive adult from 40 to 94 years of age
Outcome: atrial fibrillation
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square meter
(4) congestive heart failure (CHF)
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
40 to 44 years
-2
45 to 49 years
-1
50 to 54 years
0
55 to 59 years
1
60 to 64 years
2
65 to 69 years
3
70 to 74 years
4
75 to 79 years
5
80 to 84 years
6
85 to 89 years
7
90 to 94 years
8
sex
female
0
male
2
BMI
< 25 kg per sq m
0
25 to 30 kg per sq m
1
30.01 to 35 kg per sq m
1
> 35 kg per sq m
3
CHF
no
0
yes
3
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: -2
• maximum score: 16
Total Score
Risk
<= 0
< 0.5%
1
0.7%
2
1%
3
1.3%
4
1.8%
5
2.5%
6
3.3%
7
4.5%
8
6.1%
9
8.3%
10
11.1%
11
14.8%
12
19.6%
13
25.7%
14
33.3%
15
42.4%
16
52.8%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.69.
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