Xie et al developed equations for predicting the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in a Chinese patient with IgA nephropathy. One equation is based on both cliinical and pathologic features. The authors are from multiple hospitals in China and Columbia University.
Patient selection: Chinese adult with IgA nephropathy with renal biopsy graded with the Oxford criteria (MEST score)
Parameters:
(1) age in years at kidney biopsy
(2) eGFR in mL per min per 1.73 square meter by the CKD-EPI equation
(3) M score from the Oxford classification for mesangial hypercellularity (0 or 1)
(4) T score from the Oxford classification for tubular atrophy and interstitial fibrosis (0, 1, 2)
X =
= 0.7452 * ((T score) - 0.53)) - (0.0323 * ((age) - 37.3)) - (0.0567 * ((eGFR)-72.5)) + (0.6351 * ((M score) - 0.39))
5-year risk of end-stage renal disease =
= 1 - (0.9725 ^ (EXP(X)))
10-year risk of end-stage renal disease =
= 1 - (0.9063 ^ (EXP(X)))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve for the 5-year score is 0.92 and for the 10-year score 0.89.
