Xie et al developed equations for predicting the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in a Chinese patient with IgA nephropathy. One equation is based on clinical features only. The authors are from multiple hospitals in China and Columbia University.
Patient selection: Chinese adult with IgA nephropathy
Parameters:
(1) sex (female 2, male 1)
(2) age in years at kidney biopsy
(3) eGFR in mL per min per 1.73 square meter by the CKD-EPI equation
(4) urine protein in grams per day (24 hours)
(5) hemoglobin in g/dL
X =
= (-0.5364 * ((points for sex) - 1.5)) - (0.0382 * ((age) - 36.5)) - (0.0459 * ((eGFR)-74.7)) + (0.1913 * (LN(urine protein) - 0.12)) - (0.1736 * ((hemoglobin) - 12.9))
5-year risk of end-stage renal disease =
= 1 - (0.9515 ^ (EXP(X)))
10-year risk of end-stage renal disease =
= 1 - (0.8496 ^ (EXP(X)))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve for the 5-year score is 0.90 and for the 10-year score 0.88.
