Bhatt et al evaluated infants with surgical necrotizing enterocolitis. They developed a hybrid model based on preoperative variables for the prediction of mortality or intestinal failure. The authors are from Emory University in Atlanta.
Patient selection: neonate <= 37 weeks gestation with surgical NEC
Parameters:
(1) Apgar score at 1 minute (from 0 to 10)
(2) inotrope use
(3) mean arterial blood pressure
(4) sepsis
Parameter
Finding
Points
Apgar score
-0.275 * (Apgar)
inotrope use
no
0
yes
1.818
mean blood pressure
-0.079 * (mean BP)
sepsis
no
0
yes
-1.325
X =
= SUM(points for all 4 parameters) + 4.787
probability of mortality or intestinal failure =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.85 for the derivation cohort and 0.77 for the validation cohort.
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