Bhatt et al evaluated infants with surgical necrotizing enterocolitis. They developed a hybrid model based on preoperative variables for the prediction of mortality. The authors are from Emory University in Atlanta.
Patient selection: neonate <= 37 weeks gestation with surgical NEC
Parameters prior to surgery:
(1) arterial pH per 0.1 unit increase
(2) inotrope use
(3) mean arterial blood pressure
(4) hypothermia (< 36.5°C)
(5) PO2 to FIO2 ratio, per 10 unit increase
Parameter
Finding
Points
arterial pH
-3.567 * (pH)
inotrope use
no
0
yes
0.826
mean blood pressure
0.035 * (mean BP)
hypothermia
no
0
yes
0.915
PO2 to FIO2 ratio
-0.0044 * (ratio)
where:
• The beta-coefficients are the natural logarithms of odds ratios shown in Table 8.
X =
= SUM(points for all 5 parameters) + 26.387
probability of mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.81 for the derivation cohort and 0.88 for the validation cohort.
To read more or access our algorithms and calculators, please log in or register.
