Description

Steyerberg et al used multivariate analysis to predict how likely a residual retroperitoneal metastases from a nonseminomatous germ cell tumor (NSGCT) will contain only necrosis after chemotherapy. This can help to decide whether or not there is need to immediately resect the residual mass. The authors are from multiple hospitals and universities in Europe and North America.


 

Patient selection: male with retroperitoneal metastases from a nonseminomatous germ cell tumor with normal levels of tumor markers AFP and HCG after chemotherapy and before resection

 

NOTE: A corresponding point score is given in Table 8, page 1184.

 

Parameters:

(1) presence of teratomatous elements in primary tumor

(2) serum AFP before chemotherapy

(3) serum HCG before chemotherapy

(4) ratio of serum LDH to upper limit of normal (ULN) before chemotherapy

(5) maximum diameter after chemotherapy in mm

(6) shrinkage of tumor in CT scan after chemotherapy as a percent

 

shrinkage after chemotherapy =

= ((diameter before) - (diameter after)) / (diameter before) * 100%

Parameter

Finding

Points

teratomatous elements

absent

1

 

present

0

serum AFP

normal

1

 

elevated

0

serum HCG

normal

1

 

elevated

0

 

sumscore =

= (8.58 * (points for teratomatous elements)) + (8.7 * (points for serum AFP)) + 7.61 * (points for serum HCG)) + (9.69 * LN(ratio LDH to ULN)) - (2.83 * SQRT(diameter in mm after chemotherapy)) + (0.147 * (percent shrinkage)) - 9.78

 

X =

= (sumscore) / 10

 

probability of necrosis in the residual retroperitoneal masses =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 


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