Equation of Nguyen et al for Predicting Gangrenous Cholecystitis

Description

Nguyen et al reported logistic regression model for gangrenous cholecystitis. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the Houston Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Baylor College of Medicine and the University of Texas Houston Health Science Center.

Parameters:

(1) diabetes mellitus

(2) white blood cell count

(3) serum ALT in IU/L

(4) serum alkaline phosphatase in IU/L

(5) pericholecystic fluid collection

Parameter	Finding	Beta-Ceofficient
diabetes mellitus	absent	0
	present	0.9944
WBC count	< 15,000 per µL	0
	>= 15,000 per µL	1.7157
serum ALT	< 50 IU/L	0
	>= 50 IU/L	-1.0319
serum alkaline phosphtase	< 200 IU/L	0
	>= 200 IU/L	-2.0518
pericholecystic fluid	absent	0
	present	2.7078

where:

• The beta-coefficients are LN(odds ratios) for data in Fagan et al.

• Fagan et al identified diabetes mellitus and an elevated white blood cell count as key predictors for gangrenous cholecystitis.

X =

= SUM(points for all 5 parameters) - 0.7116

probability of gangrenous cholecystitis =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

If all of the findings are low risk, then the predicted percentage of gangrenous cholecystitis is 33% which seems high.

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Equation of Nguyen et al for Predicting Gangrenous Cholecystitis

Description

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