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Dynamic Prognostication of Chang et al for a Patient with a non-ST-Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome

Description

Chang et al estimated 30-day mortality for a patient with a non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (ACS) using a dynamic model. The authors are from the University of Alberta, Duke University, Erasmus University I Rotterdam and Baylor College of Medicine in Houston.


 

Patient selection: non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS)

 

Parameters:

(1) 30-day mortality rate at baseline

(2) 30-day mortality rate on day 2

(3) 30-day mortality rate on day 4

(4) 30-day mortality rate on day 6

 

X =

= (0.139 * (baseline risk)) + (0.085 * ((risk on day 2) – (baseline risk))) + (0.099 * ((risk on day 4) – (risk on day 2))) + (0.083 * ((risk on day 6) – (risk on day 4))) – 4.547

 

probability of 30-day mortality =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 


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Specialty

ICD-10