Dutch Prediction Tool of van den Hoven et al for Risk of Metastases to Non-Sentinel Axillary Lymph Nodes in a Woman with Breast Cancer and a Positive Sentinel Node
Van den Hoven et al reported a simple model for predicting a positive non-sentinel lymph node in a woman with breast cancer and a positive sentinel lymph node. This can help guide patient management. The authors are from multiple institutions in The Netherlands.
Patient selection: positive sentinel lymph node for breast cancer
Parameters:
(1) size of the largest metastasis to a sentinel lymph node in mm
(2) number of negative sentinel lymph nodes
Parameter
Finding
Points
diameter of largest metastasis in mm
(millimeters)
number of negative sentinel lymph nodes
0
4
>= 1
0
score =
= SUM(points for the 2 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: depends on the diameter of the largest metastasis
• The higher the score the greater the chances that a non-sentinel lymph node will be positive.
Score
Probability of a Positive Non-Sentinel Lymph Node
< 1
7.6%
1
9.2%
2
11%
3
13%
4
15%
5
18%
6
21%
7
25%
8
28%
9
33%
10
37%
11
42%
12
47%
13
52%
>= 14
56%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.75.
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