Discriminative Function of Garrison et al for Predicting Survival of a Cirrhotic Patient After Celiotomy Using Operative and Postoperative Factors

Description

Garrison et al developed equations for predicting mortality in cirrhotic patients having abdominal surgery (celiotomy). These can help identify patients who require more aggressive management and closer monitoring. The authors are from the University of Louisville.

Parameters:

(1) respiratory failure

(2) number of units of packed RBCs transfused

(3) upper GI tract bleeding

(4) urinary tract infection

(5) ascites

Parameter	Finding	Points
respiratory failure	absent	2
	present	1
upper GI bleeding	absent	2
	present	1
urinary tract infection	absent	2
	present	1
ascites	absent	2
	present	1

discriminative value =

= (5.23786 * (points for respiratory failure)) - (0.14948 * (units of PRBCs transfused)) + (1.46929 * (points for upper GI bleeding)) - (0.53948 * (points for UTI)) - (1.39626 * (points for ascites)) - 8.74144

Interpretation:

• minimum value: around -7.4

• maximum value: around 2.74

• The lower the value the worse the survival.

Discriminative Value	Outcome
>= 1.62694	survival
-3.87097 to 1.62693	indeterminate
<= -3.87098	nonsurvival

Performance:

• The discriminative value was able to predict outcome with 98% accuracy.

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Description

Specialty

ICD-10