Fink et al reported a decision aid that can help to identify a patient with a systolic murmur who should be referred for echocardiography. This can help to use resources more effectively. The authors are from New England Medical Center and Tufts University.
Patient selection: systolic murmur
Parameters:
(1) sex
(2) grade of the murmur (from 1 to 6)
(3) age in years
Parameter
Finding
Points
sex
female
0
male
1.77
grade of murmur
< 3
0
>= 3
1.61
age
0.074 * (age)
value of X =
= SUM(points for all 3 parameters) - 3.65
probability of a positive echocardiography exam =
= 1 / (1+ EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.74.
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