Description

Moul et al reported an equation for predicting recurrence of prostate cancer based on findings after radical prostatectomy. This is based on analysis of the Center for Prostate Disease Research (CPDR) and Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor (CaPSURE) databases. The authors are from Walter Reed Army Medical Center, University of California San Francisco, Stanford University, Center for Prostate Disease Research and the Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences.


 

Parameters:

(1) sigmoid transformation of the serum PSA (see Chapter 16)

(2) race (Black vs White)

(3) post-operative Gleason score (from 2 to 10)

(4) extracapsular spread (capsular penetration, as a measure of pathologic stage)

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

race

Black (Afro-American)

1

 

White or other

0

extracapsular spread

absent (organ-confined)

0

 

present (pT3+)

1

 

Y =

= (0.54 * (points for race)) + (0.05 * (sigmoid transformation of the PSA)) + (0.23 * (postoperative Gleason score)) + (0.69 * (points for extracapsular spread))

 

relative risk of recurrence =

= EXP(Y)

 

Relative Risk

Risk Group

Disease Free Survival at 7 Years

< 4.7

very low

85%

4.7 to 7.1

low

66%

7.11 to 16.7

high

51%

> 16.7

very high

21%

 


To read more or access our algorithms and calculators, please log in or register.