Patient selection: adult admitted to ICU with exacerbation of asthma and/or COPD
Primary outcome: survival to 180 days after admission
Parameters:
(1) diagnosis at time of admission to ICU
(2) gender
(3) physical function in the 2 weeks prior to hospital admission
(4) atrial fibrillation
(5) days since hospital admission before admission to ICU
(6) age in years
(7) mid-arm circumference (MAC) in cm
(8) Glasgow coma score (GCS)
(9) COPD acute physiology score
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
diagnosis on admission to ICU
|
asthma only
|
0
|
|
|
COPD and asthma
|
18
|
|
|
COPD
|
25
|
|
gender
|
female
|
0
|
|
|
male
|
10
|
|
physical function
|
fully mobile, independent
|
0
|
|
|
restricted
|
11
|
|
|
housebound
|
17
|
|
|
chair or bed bound
|
45
|
|
atrial fibrillation
|
absent
|
0
|
|
|
present
|
11
|
|
Parameter
|
Points
|
|
days since admission
|
MIN(6, days) * 4.5
|
|
age in years
|
MAX(0, (age)-70) * 1.8
|
|
MAC in cm
|
MAX(0, (30 - (MAC)) * 2.6
|
|
GCS
|
(15 - (GCS)) * 1.6
|
|
COPD APS
|
(score)
|
COPD/asthma progrnostic score =
= SUM(points for all 9 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 200
• The higher the score the greater the risk.
X =
= (0.03751 * (score)) - 3.95
probability of survival to 180 days after admission =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curves is 0.747.
