He et al reported an acute exacerbation risk model for patients with COPD. The authors are from multiple institutions in China.
Patient selection: COPD
Parameters:
(1) angina
(2) anxiety
(3) hypertension
(4) allergic rhinitis
(5) BODEx score, from 0 to 9
points for BODEx score =
= 1.11 * (score)
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
angina
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
6.6
|
|
anxiety
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
5.3
|
|
hypertension
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
2.6
|
|
allergic rhinitis
|
no
|
0.4
|
|
|
yes
|
0
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 24.9
value of X =
= (0.3456 * (score)) - 1.655
probability of an acute exacerbation =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.72.
