Patient selection: pregnant woman in ICU for more than 24 hours OR postpartum less than 6 weeks
Outcome: death, need for organ support for > 7 days, OR life-saving intervention
Parameters:
(1) maternal age in years
(2) surgical status (surgery in the 24 hours prior to admission)
(3) Glasgow coma scale
(4) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg
(5) serum potassium in mmol/L
(6) serum sodium in mmol/L
(7) serum total bilirubin in µmol/L
(8) serum creatinine in µmol/L
(9) aPTT in seconds
(10) arterial blood gas pH
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
maternal age in years
|
|
-0.00001912 * ((maternal age)^3)
|
|
surgical status
|
negative
|
0
|
|
|
positive
|
-0.776
|
|
Glasgow coma scale
|
|
-0.138 * (Glasgow Coma Scale score)
|
|
systolic blood pressure
|
|
-0.007123 * (systolic blood pressure)
|
|
serum potassium
|
|
-0.319 * (serum potassium)
|
|
serum sodium
|
|
0.0001373 * ((serum sodium)^2)
|
|
serum total bilirubin
|
|
0.004934 * (serum bilirubin)
|
|
serum creatinine
|
|
0.004673 * (serum creatinine)
|
|
aPTT
|
|
0.01584 * (aPTT)
|
|
arterial blood pH
|
|
-0.570 * (arterial blood gas pH)
|
X =
= SUM(points for all 10 parameters) + 3.087
probability of adverse outcome =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.82.
