Description

Van Staa et al reported scores for predicting the long-term risk for fractures in post-menopausal women. One score predicts the risk for fractures in bones other than the femur and vertebrae. The authors are from multiple universities in The Netherlands, Belgium and England.


Patient selection: female >= 50 years of age

 

Outcome: 5-year and 10-year risk for fractures in bones other than femur and vertebrae

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) fracture history and age

(3) fall history and age

(4) body mass index (BMI) in kilograms per square meter

(5) smoker

(6) chronic disease

(7) recent use of CNS medication

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age in years

50 to 59 years

0

 

60 to 69 years

5

 

70 to 79 years

9

 

>= 80 years

12

fracture history and age

no

0

 

yes and 50-59 years

8

 

yes and 60 to 79 years

7

 

yes and >= 80 years

6

fall history and age

no

0

 

yes and 50 to 59 years

7

 

yes and 60 to 79

5

 

yes and >= 80 years

4

BMI

< 20 kg per square m

2

 

20 to 25.9

0

 

>= 26 kg per square m

-2

smoker

no

0

 

yes

1

chronic disease

no

0

 

yes without recent GP visit or hospitalization

1

 

yes with recent GP visit or hospitalization

2

recent use of CNS drug

no

0

 

yes

2

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 7 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: -2

• maximum score: 34

• The higher the score the greater the risk.

 

Score

5-Year Risk

-2 to 30

(0.0002761 * ((score)^3)) + (0.003556 * ((score)^2)) + (0.2536 * (score)) + 2.009

> 30

> 17.3%

 

 

Score

10-Year Risk

-2 to 30

(0.0003016 * ((score)^3)) + (0.01136 * ((score)^2)) + (0.2884 * (score)) + 4.027

> 30

> 31%

 


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