Clinical Risk Prediction Score of Dasgupta et al for Postoperative Accelerated Junctional Rhythm and Junctional Ectopic Tachycardia in Children with Congenital Heart Disease (CHD)
Dasgupta et al reported a score for predicting 2 junctional arrhythmias in a pediatric patient following surgery for congenital heart disease. These arrhythmias tend to occur when there is surgical manipulation near the conduction system and they are associated with prolonged ICU and hospital length of stays. The authors are from Boston Children's Hospital and Harvard Medical School.
Patient selection: congenital heart disease, postoperative status
Outcome accelerated junctional rhythm (AJR) or junctional ectopic tachycardia (JET)
Parameters:
(1) age of the patient in years
(2) heterotaxy syndrome
(3) aortic cross-clamp time in minutes
(4) ventricular septal defect closure
(5) atrioventricular canal repair
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
< 5 years
0.8439
>= 5 years
0
heterotaxy syndrome
no
0
yes
0.8921
aortic cross clamp time and age
age < 1 year
5 * 0.0066 * (time)/10
age 1 to 2.99 years
2.5* 0.0066 * (time)/10
age 3 to 4.99 years
1.25 * 0.0066 * (time)/10
age >= 5 years
0.0066 * (time)/10
VSD closure
no
0
yes
0.3991
AV canal repair
no
0
yes
0.6923
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 4.6743
risk of AJR or JET =
= 1 / ( 1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The C-index is 0.72.
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