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Description

Hicks et al reported a clinical prediction rule for independent walking after spinal cord injury. This can help to triage patients after the injury. The authors are from multiple institutions in Canada.


Patient selection: age >= 18 years, spinal cord injury

 

Outcome: independent walking (FIM score 6 or 7 AND locomotion walking or both walking and wheelchair used) >= 12 months after injury

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) motor score L3 (from 0 to 5)

(3) motor score S1 (from 0 to 5)

(4) light touch score L3 (0 to 2)

(5) light touch score S1 (0 to 2)

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age in years

< 65 years

0

 

>= 65 years

-10

motor score L3

 

2 * (motor score)

motor score S1

 

2 * (motor score)

light touch L3

 

5 * (touch score)

light touch S1

 

5 * (touch score)

 

The authors state "the best (highest of right or left side) motor and light touch sensory scores were used for computing the new prediction rule." Option 1 is to measure each on left and right side, then take higher. Option 2 is to determine which side has better function and to score that side. Option 1 used in implementation.

 

The timing of the neurologic exam appears to be the first 15 days post injury (page 1385).

 

full score =

= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)

 

abbreviated score =

= (points for age) + (points for motor at L3) + (points for sensory at L3)

 

Interpretation:

minimum scores: -10

maximum full score: 40

maximum abbreviated score: 20

 

X =

= (0.125 * (full score)) - 1.763

 

Y =

= (0.211 * (abbreviated score)) - 1.425

 

probability of independent walking =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * (X))

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * (Y))

 

Performance:

The area under the ROC curve was 0.87 for the full score.


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