Galvin et al reported a model for estimating the risk of breast cancer in an adult woman. The autors are from the Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland.
Patient selection: adult female, from 18 to 99 years
Prevalence of breast cancer in study: 4.9%
Parameters:
(1) lump
(2) age in years
(3) nipple change
(4) nipple discharge
Parameter
Finding
Points
lump
absent
0
present
3
age
18 to 29
0
30 to 39
1
40 to 49
3
50 to 59
4
60 to 69
5
70 to 99
8
nipple change
no
0
yes
2
nipple discharge
no
0
yes
1
total score =
= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 14
• The higher the score the greater the risk for breast cancer.
Score
Risk Estimate
0
0.2%
1
0.3%
2
0.5%
3
1%
4
1.8%
5
3.2%
6
5.7%
7
10%
8
17%
9
27%
10
40%
11
55%
12
69%
13
80%
14
88%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.86.
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