Ng et al reported a clinical prediction model for severity of COVID-19 in a pediatric patient. The authors are from multiple institutions in Malaysia.
Patient selection: pediatric patient <= 12 years of age with COVID-19
Parameters:
(1) number of comorbidities
(2) shortness of breath
(3) vomiting
(4) diarrhea
(5) rash
(6) seizures
(7) temperature on arrival in °C from 35 to 40.5
(8) chest retractions
(9) abnormal breath sounds
points for temperature =
= (18.182 * (temperature)) - 636.364
Parameter
Finding
Points
number of comorbidities
0
>= 1
11.74
shortness of breath
no
yes
35.22
vomiting
19.66
diarrhea
18.56
rash
16.93
seizures
26.75
chest retractions
56.78
abnormal breath sounds
28.39
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 314.03
value of X =
= (0.0595 * (score)) - 4.589
risk of moderate or severe COVID-19 =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.86.
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Specialty: Infectious Diseases
