Ng et al reported a clinical prediction model for severity of COVID-19 in a pediatric patient. The authors are from multiple institutions in Malaysia.
Patient selection: pediatric patient <= 12 years of age with COVID-19
Parameters:
(1) number of comorbidities
(2) shortness of breath
(3) vomiting
(4) diarrhea
(5) rash
(6) seizures
(7) temperature on arrival in °C from 35 to 40.5
(8) chest retractions
(9) abnormal breath sounds
points for temperature =
= (18.182 * (temperature)) - 636.364
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
number of comorbidities |
0 |
0 |
|
>= 1 |
11.74 |
shortness of breath |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
35.22 |
vomiting |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
19.66 |
diarrhea |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
18.56 |
rash |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
16.93 |
seizures |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
26.75 |
chest retractions |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
56.78 |
abnormal breath sounds |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
28.39 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 314.03
value of X =
= (0.0595 * (score)) - 4.589
risk of moderate or severe COVID-19 =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.86.
Specialty: Infectious Diseases