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Description

Ng et al reported a clinical prediction model for severity of COVID-19 in a pediatric patient. The authors are from multiple institutions in Malaysia.


Patient selection: pediatric patient <= 12 years of age with COVID-19

 

Parameters:

(1) number of comorbidities

(2) shortness of breath

(3) vomiting

(4) diarrhea

(5) rash

(6) seizures

(7) temperature on arrival in °C from 35 to 40.5

(8) chest retractions

(9) abnormal breath sounds

 

points for temperature =

= (18.182 * (temperature)) - 636.364

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

number of comorbidities

0

0

 

>= 1

11.74

shortness of breath

no

0

 

yes

35.22

vomiting

no

0

 

yes

19.66

diarrhea

no

0

 

yes

18.56

rash

no

0

 

yes

16.93

seizures

no

0

 

yes

26.75

chest retractions

no

0

 

yes

56.78

abnormal breath sounds

no

0

 

yes

28.39

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 314.03

 

value of X =

= (0.0595 * (score)) - 4.589

 

risk of moderate or severe COVID-19 =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.86.


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