Classification Tree of Stel et al for Predicting the Risk of Recurrent Fall at 1 Year Follow-up in a Community-Dwelling Older Person

Description

Stel et al used a classification tree to predict the probability of recurrent falls at a 1 year follow-up in a community-dwelling older adult patient. This can help identify patients who may benefit from closer monitoring and interventions to reduce fall-related injury. The authors are from VU University Medical Center in Amsterdam.

Patient selection: 55 to 85 years of age, community-dwelling

Analysis: classification tree

Parameter:

(1) number of falls in past year (at initial evaluation)

(2) grip strength in kgf using a strain gauged dynamometer (based on sum of maximum value for the left hand and the maximum value for the right hand)

(3) functional limitations (out of 6 activities of daily living: climbing stairs, walking 5 minutes outdoors, rising from a chair or sitting down, dress or undressing, using public transportation, cutting own toenails)

Grip strength is graded based on gender:

Gender	Low Grip Strength	High Grip Strength
female	<= 35 kgf	> 35 kgf
male	<= 60 kgf	> 60 kgf

The parameters can be used to predict the number of patients with recurrent falls at a follow-up 1 year later.

Number of Falls in Previous Year	Grip Strength	Functional Limitation Score	Risk for Recur-rent Fall at 1 Year
0 or 1	high	NA	6%
0 or 1	low	NA	12%
2 or more	NA	0 or 1	13%
2 or more	NA	2 or more	42%

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Description

Specialty

ICD-10