Cirrhosis in Hep C - Prediction Model | Medical Algorithm

Description

Kaul et al developed a model for predicting cirrhosis in a patient with chronic viral hepatitis C (HCV). This may help identify patients with cirrhosis without the need for liver biopsy. The authors are from Albert Einstein Medical Center and Thomas Jefferson University in Philadelphia.

Parameters:

(1) gender

(2) serum AST in IU/L

(3) presence or absence of spider nevi

(4) platelet count

Parameter	Finding	Points
gender	female	0
	male	1
serum AST	<= 40 IU/L	0
	> 40 IU/L	1
spider nevi	absent	0
	present	1
platelet count	>= 140,000 per µL	0
	< 140,000 per µL	1

X =

= (3.962053 * (points for gender)) + (4.260415 * (points for platelet count)) + (3.020743 * (points for AST)) + (3.0947 * (points for spider nevi)) - 7.962491

probability of cirrhosis =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

Gender	Spider	AST	Platelet Count	Probability	Upper End 95% CI
female	absent	<= 40	>= 140	0.03%	0.04%
female	absent	> 40	>= 140	0.7%	3.1%
female	absent	<= 40	< 140	2.4%	10.6%
female	absent	> 40	< 140	34%	54%
female	present	<= 40	>= 140	0.8%	6.1%
female	present	> 40	>= 140	14%	45%
female	present	<= 40	< 140	35%	74%
female	present	> 40	< 140	92%	98%
male	absent	<= 40	>= 140	1.8%	7.2%
male	absent	> 40	>= 140	27%	40%
male	absent	<= 40	< 140	56%	84%
male	absent	> 40	< 140	96.4%	99%
male	present	<= 40	>= 140	29%	63%
male	present	> 40	>= 140	89%	97%
male	present	<= 40	< 140	96.6%	99%
male	present	> 40	< 140	99.8%	100%

Limitation:

• The method and reference range for the serum AST assay was not reported. An assumption is that 40 IU/L is the upper limit of the normal reference range for males and females.

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Description

Specialty

Objective

ICD-10

Model for Predicting Cirrhosis in Patient with Chronic Viral Hepatitis C (HCV)

Purpose: To predict the probability of cirrhosis in a patient with chronic viral hepatitis (HCV) using the model of Kaul et al.

Description

Specialty

Objective

ICD-10