Montes et al reported a model for predicting chronic pain following surgery. Chronic postsurgical pain should have started after surgery and lasted >= 3 months, not due to another cause. The authors are from Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Hospital Universitari Germans Trias i Pujol and Funacio Puigvert in Barcelona, Spain.
Parameters:
(1) type of surgery
(2) age in years
(3) physical SF-12 score, apparently scaled from 0 to 100
(4) mental SF-12 score, apparently scaled from 0 to 100
(5) preoperative pain by VNRS (verbal numerical rating scale - VAS from 0 to 10)
(6) preoperative area
Parameter
Finding
Points
type of surgery
abdominal hysterectomy
0.50
hernia repair
0.28
thoracotomy
1.88
other
0
age
< 51 years
1.13
51 to 64 years
0.48
> 64 years
0
physical SF-12 score
<= 33.5
0.86
33.6 to 55.1
0.52
> 55.1
0
mental SF-12 score
<= 44.8
0.51
> 44.8
0
preoperative pain
VNRS <= 3
0
VNRS > 3 and surgical area
0.41
VNRS > 3 and other area
0.37
X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 3.37
probability of chronic postsurgical pain = CPSP =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.69.
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