Alonso et al developed models for predicting the risk for atrial fibrillation in adults. These can help to identify a patient at increased risk who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from multiple institutions in the United States and Europe.
Patient selection: adult without atrial fibrillation
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) race
(3) height in centimeters
(4) weight in kilograms
(5) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg
(6) diastolic blood pressure in mm Hg
(7) smoking status
(8) use of antihypertensive medications
(9) diabetes
(10) heart failure
(11) myocardial infarction
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
0.508 * (age) / 5
race
white
0.465
other
0
height in centimeters
0.248 * (height) / 10
weight in kilograms
0.115 * (weight) / 15
systolic blood pressure
0.197 * (SBP) / 20
diastolic blood pressure
-0.101 * (DBP) / 10
smoking status
current
0.359
other
0
antihypertensive drugs
no
0
yes
0.349
diabetes
no
0
yes
0.237
heart failure
no
0
yes
0.701
myocardial infarction
no
0
yes
0.496
X =
= SUM(points for all 11 parameters) - 12.58156
5-year risk of atrial fibrillation =
= 1 - (0.9718412736^(X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.77.
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