Alonso et al developed models for predicting the risk for atrial fibrillation in adults. These can help to identify a patient at increased risk who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from multiple institutions in the United States and Europe.
Patient selection: adult without atrial fibrillation
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) race
(3) height in centimeters
(4) weight in kilograms
(5) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg
(6) diastolic blood pressure in mm Hg
(7) smoking status
(8) use of antihypertensive medications
(9) diabetes
(10) heart failure
(11) myocardial infarction
(12) evidence of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) on ECG
(13) PR interval in milliseconds
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
0.501 * (age) / 5
race
white
0.486
other
0
height in centimeters
0.243 * (height) / 10
weight in kilograms
0.121 * (weight) / 15
systolic blood pressure
0.186 * (SBP) / 20
diastolic blood pressure
-0.098 * (DBP) / 10
smoking status
current
0.365
other
0
antihypertensive drugs
no
0
yes
0.341
diabetes
no
0
yes
0.242
heart failure
no
0
yes
0.678
myocardial infarction
no
0
yes
0.469
LVH by ECG
no
0
yes
0.401
PR interval
< 120 ms
0.645
120 to 199
0
> 199
0.118
X =
= SUM(points for all 13 parameters) - 12.4411305
5-year risk of atrial fibrillation =
= 1 - (0.9719033184^(X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.77.
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