Payne et al reported the Cambridge Multimorbidity Scores. One model uses 37 conditions and second model with a subset of 20 conditions. The authors are from the University of Bristol, University of Cambridge, RAND Corporation and University College London at the Royal Free.
Outcomes:
(1) mortality
(2) primary care consultation
(3) unplanned hospital admission
(4) general outcome
Condition |
Mortality |
PCC |
UHA |
GO |
hypertension |
–2.09 |
0.66 |
10.76 |
0.08 |
anxiety or depression |
7.04 |
2.12 |
46.61 |
0.50 |
pain |
16.46 |
3.43 |
84.93 |
0.92 |
hearing loss |
–3.94 |
1.04 |
8.93 |
0.09 |
irritable bowel syndrome |
–1.33 |
1.82 |
8.55 |
0.21 |
asthma |
–2.73 |
1.32 |
22.78 |
0.19 |
diabetes mellitus |
10.23 |
3.77 |
55.33 |
0.75 |
coronary heart disease |
4.22 |
1.49 |
70.87 |
0.49 |
chronic kidney disease |
16.61 |
0.98 |
52.13 |
0.53 |
atrial fibrillation |
22.14 |
5.94 |
105.21 |
1.34 |
constipation |
35.42 |
3.42 |
72.73 |
1.12 |
stroke or TIA |
20.63 |
1.54 |
90.84 |
0.80 |
COPD |
42.50 |
3.43 |
134.51 |
1.46 |
connective tissue disorder |
–0.39 |
3.10 |
28.87 |
0.43 |
cancer |
62.00 |
2.58 |
104.80 |
1.53 |
alcohol problems |
12.72 |
0.97 |
93.59 |
0.65 |
heart failure |
43.47 |
2.90 |
73.20 |
1.18 |
dementia |
124.42 |
1.81 |
156.90 |
2.50 |
psychosis or bipolar disorder |
7.20 |
2.24 |
77.28 |
0.64 |
epilepsy |
18.26 |
2.13 |
113.42 |
0.92 |
score for each outcome =
= SUM(weights for each condition)
Interpretation:
• minimum score for mortality: -10.48
• maximum score for mortality: 443.32
Performance:
• The various areas under the ROC curve is shown in Table 4.