Levine et al reported a model for predicting Cesarean delivery following induction of a woman in labor who has an unfavorable cervix. The authors are from University of Pennsylvania.
Patient selection: nulli/multi-parous woman with unfavorable cervix (Bishop score <= 6 and dilation <= 2 cm
Outcome: Cesarean delivery after induction
Parameters:
(1) modified Bishop score at induction
(2) gestational age in weeks
(3) parity
(4) BMI in kg per square meter at delivery
(5) height in inches
Parameters
Findings
Points
Bishop
6
0
5
1.14
4
2.28
3
3.42
2
4.56
1
5.70
0
6.84
gestational age
< 40 weeks
0
>= 40 weeks
1.55
parity
nulliparity
8.19
multiparity
0
BMI
< 25
0
25 to 29.99
2.5
30 to 34.99
5
35 to 40
7.5
> 40
10
height in inches
>= 66
0
64 to 65
2
62 to 63
4
< 62
6
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 32.54
value of X =
= (0.1601 * (score)) - 3.758
probability of Cesarean delivery =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
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