Description

Goltz et al reported a model for predicting the risk of 90-day readmission following total knee or hip arthroplasty (TKA, THA). This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management to avoid readmission. The authors are from Duke University.


Patient selection: TKA or THA, age 60 to 100 years

 

Parameters:

(1) joint replaced

(2) age in years

(3) insurance type

(4) smoking status

(5) ASA status

(6) cardiac arrhythmia

(7) depression

(8) liver disease

(9) diabetes complicated

(10) drug abuse

(11) hypertension

(12) neurologic disease

(13) peripheral vascular disease

(14) pulmonary circulation disease

(15) postoperative BUN in mg/dL

(16) postoperative hemoglobin in g/dL

(17) duration of surgery in minutes

 

points for age 60 to 70 =

= 35.56 - (0.508 * (age))

 

points for age 70 to 100 =

= (0.01547 * ((age)^2)) - (0.7758 * (age)) - 21.73

 

points for postoperative BUN =

= (1.0625 * (BUN)) - 10.625

 

points for hemoglobin =

= (0.1306 * ((hemoglobin)^2)) - (5.278 * (hemoglobin)) + 52.44

 

points for duration of surgery 20 to 120 minutes =

= (-0.003443 * ((minutes)^2)) + (1.173 * (score)) - 23.03

 

points for duration of surgery from 120 to 320 minutes =

= (0.1594 * (minutes)) + 49.08

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

joint replaced

knee

0

 

hip

14.8

insurance type

private

0

 

medicare or other

11.9

smoking status

never

0

 

current

11

 

former

11

ASA status

ASA 1

0

 

ASA 2

13.4

 

ASA 3

26.3

 

ASA 4

39.8

cardiac arrhythmias

no

0

 

yes

9.3

depression

no

0

 

yes

15.5

liver disease

no

0

 

yes

16.9

complicated diabetes

no

0

 

yes

22,6

drug abuse

no

0

 

yes

76.7

hypertension

no

0

 

yes

10.6

neurologic disease

no

0

 

yes

20.7

peripheral vascular disease

no

0

 

yes

22.9

pulmonary circulation disease

no

0

 

yes

24.9

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

 

Interpretation:

minimum score: 0

maximum score: 574.9

The higher the score the greater the risk of readmission.

 

value of X =

= (0.02489 * (score)) - 6.199


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