Feghali et al reported models for predicting certain outcomes following suboccipital decompression of a patient with a Chiari Type I malformation. One model predicts the risk of reoperation. The authors are from Johns Hopkins University.
Patient selection: suboccipital decompression of a Type I Chiari malformation in an adult
Parameters:
(1) sex
(2) body mass index in kg per sq meter
(3) ASA class (1 or 2 versus 3 or 4)
Parameter
Finding
Beta-Coefficients
sex
female
-0.732
male
0
body mass index
0.053 * (BMI)
ASA class
1 or 2
0
3 or 4
1.206
where:
• The beta-coefficients are LN(odds ratios) in table 5.
value of X =
= SUM(points for all 3 parameters) - 4.552
probability of reoperation =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.726.
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