The Brier score can be used to assess the accuracy of outcome prediction. Developed for weather forecasting, the score can be applied to a clinician or prognostic index.


The Brier score for a prediction of cure in a patient:


Brier score =

= (((predicted probability of cure) – (actual outcome))^2)



• actual outcome for a cure = 1; actual outcome for no cure = 0


average Brier score =

= (SUM(all Brier scores)) / (number of patients evaluated)



• minimum Brier score: 0

• maximum Brier score: 1

• A score of 0 indicates perfect prediction.

• A score of 1 indicates worst possible prediction.


To read more or access our algorithms and calculators, please log in or register.