The risk of having a fatal cardiovascular event over the next 10 years can be predicted for Europeans using the data from the SCORE project ( S ystematic CO ronary R isk E valuation). This can help determine the need for interventions to prevent such an event. The SCORE project participants are from all across Europe.
Method of analysis: Weibull proportional hazard model
Risk for cardiovascular disease is based on whether the patient is from a lowrisk or highrisk region of Europe. Noncoronary cardiovascular disease involves stroke, peripheral vascular disease and other conditions not involving the coronary arteries.
For both coronary heart disease and noncoronary cardiovascular disease, calculate survival for current age and for 10 years from now:
survival probability for current age =
= EXP((1) * EXP(alpha coefficient) * (((age in years) 20)^(p coefficient)))
survival probability in 10 years =
= EXP((1) * EXP(alpha coefficient) * (((age in years) 10)^(p coefficient)))
Coronary Heart Disease
Risk 
Gender 
alpha coefficient 
p coefficient 
low 
male 
22.1 
4.71 

female 
29.8 
6.36 
high 
male 
21.0 
4.62 

female 
28.7 
6.23 
Noncoronary Cardiovascular Disease
Risk 
Gender 
alpha coefficient 
p coefficient 
low 
male 
26.7 
5.64 

female 
31.0 
6.62 
high 
male 
25.7 
5.47 

female 
30.0 
6.42 
For both coronary heart disease and noncoronary cardiovascular disease, calculate the weighted sum for risk factors:
weighted sum =
= ((beta factor for cholesterol) * ((serum cholesterol in mmol/L)  6)) + ((beta factor for systolic blood pressure) * ((systolic blood pressure in mm Hg)  120)) + ((beta factor for current smoking) * (points for current smoking))
where:
• Points for current smoking: 0 if not currently smoking, 1 if currently smoking cigarettes
beta factor 
coronary heart disease 
noncoronary cardiovascular disease 
cholesterol 
0.24 
0.02 
systolic blood pressure 
0.018 
0.022 
smoking 
0.71 
0.63 
For both coronary heart disease and noncoronary cardiovascular disease, adjust the current and 10 year survival for the weight sum.
adjusted survival probability for current age =
= (survival probability for current age) ^ (EXP(weighted sum))
adjusted survival probability for 10 years from now =
= (survival probability for 10 years from now) ^ (EXP(weighted sum))
For both coronary heart disease and noncoronary heart disease, calculate the 10 year survival probability:
10 year survival probability =
= (adjusted survival probability for 10 years from now) / (adjusted survival probability for current age)
For both coronary heart disease and noncoronary heart disease, calculate the risk of death in 10 years:
risk for death within 10 years for type of disease =
= 1  (10 year survival probability)
The final risk for death within 10 years is calculated:
risk of death within 10 years =
= (risk for death within 10 years from coronary heart disease) + (risk for death within 10 years from noncoronary cardiovascular disease)
Specialty: Cardiology
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