 ### Description

The risk of having a fatal cardiovascular event over the next 10 years can be predicted for Europeans using the data from the SCORE project ( S ystematic CO ronary R isk E valuation). This can help determine the need for interventions to prevent such an event. The SCORE project participants are from all across Europe.

Method of analysis: Weibull proportional hazard model

Risk for cardiovascular disease is based on whether the patient is from a low-risk or high-risk region of Europe. Non-coronary cardiovascular disease involves stroke, peripheral vascular disease and other conditions not involving the coronary arteries.

For both coronary heart disease and non-coronary cardiovascular disease, calculate survival for current age and for 10 years from now:

survival probability for current age =

= EXP((-1) * EXP(alpha coefficient) * (((age in years) -20)^(p coefficient)))

survival probability in 10 years =

= EXP((-1) * EXP(alpha coefficient) * (((age in years) -10)^(p coefficient)))

Coronary Heart Disease

 Risk Gender alpha coefficient p coefficient low male -22.1 4.71 female -29.8 6.36 high male -21.0 4.62 female -28.7 6.23

Noncoronary Cardiovascular Disease

 Risk Gender alpha coefficient p coefficient low male -26.7 5.64 female -31.0 6.62 high male -25.7 5.47 female -30.0 6.42

For both coronary heart disease and non-coronary cardiovascular disease, calculate the weighted sum for risk factors:

weighted sum =

= ((beta factor for cholesterol) * ((serum cholesterol in mmol/L) - 6)) + ((beta factor for systolic blood pressure) * ((systolic blood pressure in mm Hg) - 120)) + ((beta factor for current smoking) * (points for current smoking))

where:

• Points for current smoking: 0 if not currently smoking, 1 if currently smoking cigarettes

 beta factor coronary heart disease noncoronary cardiovascular disease cholesterol 0.24 0.02 systolic blood pressure 0.018 0.022 smoking 0.71 0.63

For both coronary heart disease and non-coronary cardiovascular disease, adjust the current and 10 year survival for the weight sum.

adjusted survival probability for current age =

= (survival probability for current age) ^ (EXP(weighted sum))

adjusted survival probability for 10 years from now =

= (survival probability for 10 years from now) ^ (EXP(weighted sum))

For both coronary heart disease and non-coronary heart disease, calculate the 10 year survival probability:

10 year survival probability =

= (adjusted survival probability for 10 years from now) / (adjusted survival probability for current age)

For both coronary heart disease and non-coronary heart disease, calculate the risk of death in 10 years:

risk for death within 10 years for type of disease =

= 1 - (10 year survival probability)

The final risk for death within 10 years is calculated:

risk of death within 10 years =

= (risk for death within 10 years from coronary heart disease) + (risk for death within 10 years from non-coronary cardiovascular disease)