Li et al reported the C2HEST score for predicting atrial fibrillation in an Asian patient. This can help to identify a patient who should be monitored more closely for atrial fibrillation. The authors are from multiple institutions in China, Korea and Europe.
Patient selection: Asian adult
Parameters:
(1) coronary artery disease (C)
(2) COPD (C)
(3) hypertension (H)
(4) elderly (E)
(5) systolic heart failure (S)
(6) thyroid disease (hyperthroidism, T)
Parameter
Finding
Points
coronary artery disease
no
0
yes
1
COPD
no
0
yes
1
hypertension
no
0
yes
1
elderly
age < 75 years
0
age >= 75 years
2
systolic heart failure
no
0
yes
2
hyperthyroidism
no
0
yes
1
total score =
= SUM(points for all 6 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 8
• The higher the score the greater the risk of atrial fibrillation.
Score
Risk Group
Incidence Rate
0 or 1
low
0.3% per year
2 or 3
medium
2.6% per year
>= 4
high
16% per year
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.75.
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