Bagheri et al reported the BUrn Mortality Prediction (BUMP) score for evaluating burn patients. This can be used to predict mortality for a burn patient. The authors are from the University of Witten/Herdecke in Cologne.
Patient selection: burn, age >= 16 years
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) percent total burn surface area (TBSA) in percent
(3) full thickness burn present
(4) inhalation injury
(5) number of risk factors (comorbidities) present (smoker, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, coronary artery disease, renal insufficiency, COPD, peripheral arterial disease, heart insufficiency, cardiac arrhythmia)
(6) circumstances of burn exposure
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
age in years
|
16 to 39 years
|
0
|
|
|
40 to 49 years
|
0.9
|
|
|
50 to 59 years
|
1.6
|
|
|
60 to 69 years
|
1.9
|
|
|
70 to 79 years
|
2.7
|
|
|
>= 80 years
|
3.6
|
|
percent TBSA
|
|
0.08 * (TBSA)
|
|
full thickness burn
|
absent
|
0
|
|
|
present
|
0.5
|
|
inhalation injury
|
absent
|
0
|
|
|
present
|
1
|
|
number of risk factors
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
1
|
0.2
|
|
|
2
|
0.8
|
|
|
3
|
1.2
|
|
|
>= 4
|
1.6
|
|
circumstance of burn
|
work-related
|
-0.5
|
|
|
traffic accident
|
1.7
|
|
|
suicide attempt
|
0.08
|
|
|
other
|
0
|
BUMP score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 6.9
Interpretation:
• minimum score: -7.4
• maximum score: 9.7
mortality rate =
= 1/ (1+EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.96.
