Riediger et al reported the Bile Leak Risk Score (BLRS) for the prediction of postoperative bile leakage. The authors are from Technische Universitat Dresden and affiliated organizations.
Patient selection: patient undergoing liver surgery
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) extent of liver surgery
(3) FOLFOX and cetuximab therapy (chemotherapy used in colon cancer)
(4) operation time in minutes
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
0.026 * (age)
extent of liver surgery
minor
0
major
0.841
FOLFOX + cetuximab
no
0
yes
1.253
operation time
0.004 * (time)
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 5.039
probability of liver leak = BLRS =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.73.
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