Marois et al reported a bedside score for predicting severe dengue fever in a male. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from France and New Caledonia.
Patient selection: male with dengue fever
Parameters:
(1) age class
(2) mucosal bleeding
(3) platelet countper µL
(4) serum ALT as a multiple of the upper limit of normal
(5) alcohol use
Parameter
Finding
Points
age
<= 10 years of age
-0.27
11 to 20 years
-0.12
21 to 30 years
-1.36
31 to 40 years
0
41 to 60 years
0.19
> 60 years
2.15
mucosal bleeding
no
0
yes
2.28
platelet count
>= 30,000 per µL
0
< 30,000 per µL
1.76
serum ALT/ULN ratio
<= 10
0
> 10
5.49
alcohol use
<= 3 units per day
0
> 3 units per day
3.04
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 3.17
probability of severe dengue =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.97.
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