Description

The hospital mortality rate for a patient with the Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) can be predicted based on the ARDS Severity Score proposed by Monchi et al. The study was done at the Hospital Cochin in Paris, France.


Criteria for ARDS according to the American-European consensus

(1) acute onset of arterial hypoxemia with PaO2/FIO2 < 200 mm Hg regardless of PEEP level

(2) bilateral infiltrates on chest X-ray

(3) pulmonary artery occlusive pressure < 18 mm Hg or no evidence of left atrial hypertension

(4) presence of compatible risk factors

 

Parameters:

(1) presence of cirrhosis and/or direct lung injury

(2) right atrial and pulmonary artery occlusive pressure, as measure of right ventricular dysfunction

(3) length of mechanical ventilation prior to onset of the ARDS

(4) SAPS II score

(5) underlying, comorbid conditions

(6) oxygenation index, based on mean airway pressure, FIO2 and PaO2

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

cirrhosis

present

33

 

absent

0

direct lung injury

present

10

 

absent

0

right atrial pressure and pulmonary artery occlusive pressure

right atrial pressure > pulmonary artery occlusive pressure

16

 

right atrial pressure <= pulmonary artery occlusive pressure

0

length of mechanical ventilation prior to onset of ARDS

 

1 point per day

SAPS II score

 

SAPS II score

McCabe-Jackson score for comorbid conditions

score 1 (nonfatal)

0

 

score 2 (ultimately fatal)

14

 

score 3 (fatal)

28

oxygenation index

 

0.5 * (index)

 

oxygenation index =

= (mean airway pressure in cm H2O) * (FIO2) * 100 / (PaO2 in mm Hg)

 

where:

• right atrial pressure exceeding pulmonary artery occlusive pressure indicates right ventricular dysfunction

• SAPS II is discussed in the chapter on critical care

 

ARDS severity score =

= SUM(points for parameters present)

 

logit =

= (0.09385 * (ARDS severity score)) - 7.6697

 

probability of hospital mortality =

= (EXP(logit)) / (1 + (EXP(logit)))

 

where:

• The probability curve is shown in Figure 1 on page 1079.

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.95 for the developmental sample and 0.92 in the validation group.

 

Major findings seen on the first day of mechanically ventilated ARDS:

(1) SAPS II is best severity score

(2) the McCabe-Jackson score contributes to outcome prediction

(3) the triggering risk factor affects survival

(4) patients with a long period of mechanical ventilation prior to onset of ARDS had a worse prognosis

(5) right ventricular dysfunction is associated with a higher risk of death

(6) the oxygenation index has prognostic value


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