Spinar et al developed two simple scores for predicting the prognosis of a patient with congestive heart failure with includsion of several comorbid conditions. The AHEAD score is based on 5 key parameters. The authors are from multiple hospitals in the Czech Republic.
The name is based on atrial fibrillation (A), hemoglobin (H), elderly age (E), abnormal renal function (A) and diabetes mellitus (D).
Patient selection: congestive heart failure
Outcome: short and long-term mortality
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) atrial fibrillation
(3) diabetes mellitus
(4) serum creatinine in µmol/L
(5) anemia (hemoglobin in g/L by gender)
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
<= 70 years
0
> 70 years
1
atrial fibrillation
absent
0
present
1
diabetes mellitus
absent
0
present
1
serum creatinine
<= 130 µmol/L
0
> 130 µmol/L
1
hemoglobin
male and < 130 g/L
1
male and >= 130 g/L
0
female and < 120 g/L
1
female and >= 120 g/L
0
total score =
= SUM(point for all 5 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 5
• The higher the score the worse the overall survival.
Score
5 Year Survival
0
73%
1
53%
2
38%
3
25%
4
19%
5
8%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.70 for 5 years and 0.75 for 7.5 years.
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