Ntaios et al reported the AF-ESUS score to identify a stroke patient at increased risk for new onset atrial fibrillation. The authors are from multiple institutions in Greece, Swtizerland and England.
AF-ESUS = atrial fibrillation embolic stroke of undetermined source
Patient selection: recent stroke with undetermined source
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) hypertension
(3) left ventricular hypertrophy on echocardiography
(4) left atrial diameter in mm
(5) left ventricular ejection fraction in percent
(6) supraventricular extrasystole on 12-lead ECG
(7) subcortical infarct
(8) non-stenotic carotid plaques
Parameters
Findings
Points
age in years
< 60 years
0
>= 60 years
3
hypertension
no
0
yes
2
left ventricular hypertrophy
no
0
yes
-1
left atrial diameter
<= 40 mm
0
> 40 mm
2
LVEF
>= 35%
0
< 35%
-3
supraventricular extrasystole
no
0
yes
1
subcortical infarct
no
0
yes
-2
non-stenotic carotid plaque
no
0
yes
-3
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: -9
• maximum score: 8
Score
New Incident AF
<= 0
2%
> 0
27%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.85.
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