After the initial description of a predictive equation for patients with Hodgkins disease (above), Gobbi et al provided additional prognostic information which could be derived from the equation.
95% confidence interval for mean survival time =
= +/- (1.96 * (standard deviation for the mean survival time))
median survival in months =
= (mean survival time in months) * LN(2) =
= 0.693 * (mean survival time in months)
95% confidence interval for median survival time =
= +/- (1.96 * (standard deviation) * 0.693)
probability for patient surviving a certain time t =
= EXP((-1) * t / (mean survival time in months))
lower 95% confidence interval for patient surviving a certain time t =
= EXP((-1) * t / ((mean survival time in months) - (95% confidence interval for mean survival time)))
upper 95% confidence interval for patient surviving a certain time t =
= EXP((-1) * t / ((mean survival time in months) + (95% confidence interval for mean survival time)))
where:
• The derivation for the equations is included in the Appendix (pages 37-38).
Standard Deviation for the Mean Survival Time
|
ESR |
Stage |
Histo |
Age |
Albumin |
Sex |
SD of T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
30.28 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
28.80 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
31.16 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
30.67 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
35.50 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
32.49 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
34.99 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
32.81 |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
30.86 |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
27.86 |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
31.21 |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
29.23 |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
35.22 |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
30.77 |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
34.22 |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
30.58 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
27.87 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
27.18 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
28.86 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
29.19 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
32.04 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
29.52 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
31.50 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
29.91 |
|
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
25.54 |
|
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
21.81 |
|
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
25.01 |
|
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
23.58 |
|
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
28.21 |
|
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
23.51 |
|
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
27.00 |
|
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
23.30 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
32.52 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
31.72 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
30.25 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
30.34 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
35.28 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
32.81 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
31.81 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
30.02 |
|
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
32.14 |
|
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
29.88 |
|
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
29.28 |
|
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
27.83 |
|
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
34.13 |
|
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
30.13 |
|
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
29.98 |
|
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
26.44 |
|
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
25.99 |
|
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
25.96 |
|
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
23.13 |
|
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
24.31 |
|
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
27.74 |
|
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
25.52 |
|
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
23.21 |
|
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
21.85 |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
21.00 |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
18.73 |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
16.36 |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
15.32 |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
21.88 |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
16.49 |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
14.67 |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
8.10 |
after Table 3, page 32
where:
• The value of 0 or 1 for each variable is assigned as for the predictive equation.
Specialty: Hematology Oncology
