Acute Paraquat Poisoning Mortality (APPM) Score of Chen et al for Predicting Mortality for a Patient with Paraquat Poisoning

Description

Chen et al reported the Acute Paraquat Poisoning Mortality (APPM) score for a patient poisoned with paraquat. This can help determine the severity of the poisoning. The authors are from Lariboisiere Hospital (Paris) and Chang Gung Memorial Hospital in Taoyan, Taiwan.

Patient selection: acute paraquat poisoning, time from ingestion variable

Parameters:

(1) urine paraquat in parts per million (ppm)

(2) serum glucose in mmol/L

(3) white blood cell count in 10^9/L

Parameter	Finding	Points	Beta-Coefficient
urine paraquat	<= 10 ppm	0	0
	> 10 ppm	6	2.54
serum glucose	<= 7.8 mmol/L	0	0
	> 7.8 mmol/L	5	2.01
WBC count	<= 13 * 10^9/L	0	0
	> 13 * 10^9/L	4	1.70

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

value of X =

= SUM(beta-coefficients) - 2.57

probability of death =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 15

Score	Risk Group	Mortality Rate
<= 5	low	11 to 24%
6 or 9	moderate	47 to 58%
10 or 11	high	76 to 95%
15	very high	100%

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.91 for derivation and 0.94 for the validation cohorts.

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Acute Paraquat Poisoning Mortality (APPM) Score of Chen et al for Predicting Mortality for a Patient with Paraquat Poisoning

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