Description

Tang et al developed a model for predicting blood transfusion following orthopedic surgery with intraoperative blood salvage. The authors are from Zunyi Medical University, Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Kumming Children's Hospital in China.


Patient selection: orthopedic surgery with intraoperative blood salvage

 

Outcome: post-operative allogeneic blood transfusion

 

Parameters:

(1) age

(2) gender

(3) ASA grade

(4) preoperative hemoglobin in g/L

(5) operation time in minutes

(6) laying out time of autologous blood

(7) blood loss in mL

(8) postoperative drainage volume

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age

< 60 years

2

 

>= 60 years

1

gender

male

1

 

female

2

ASA grade

1 or 2

1

 

3 or 4

2

preoperative hemoglobin

>= 120 g/L

3

 

90 to 120 g/L

2

 

60 to 90

1

operation time

< 240 minutes

1

 

>= 240 minutes

2

laying time for autologous blood

< 180 minutes

1

 

>= 180 minutes

2

blood loss

< 500 mL

1

 

>= 500

2

postoperative drainage

< 200 mL

1

 

>= 200 mL

2

 

For the logistic regression equation items 1, 3, 4 and 8 were used.

 

X =

= (-0.879 * (points for age)) + (0.873 * (points for ASA grade)) - (0.631 * (points for preoperative hemoglobin)) + (1.454 * (points for postoperative drainage)) - 3.23

 

probability of postoperative transfusion of allogeneic blood =

= 1/ (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.79.


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