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2008 Nomograms of Nguyen et al for Osteoporosis: Model 1 for Females

Description

Nguyen et al developed several models for prediction of osteoporotic fracture risk, then used these to develop nomograms. These can individualize a patient's risk of fracture, which can help to determine the best way to reduce the risk. The authors are from the Garvan Institute of Medical Research at st. Vincent's Hospital and the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia.


Model 1 uses bone mineral density (BMD) at baseline.

 

Patient selection: adult female

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years, from 55 to 100 years

(2) femoral neck bone mineral density T-score from +4 to -6

(3) number of prior fractures after age 50 years (>50)

(4) number of falls in past 12 months

 

points for age =

= (0.8 * (age)) - 44

 

points for T-score =

= (-10 * (T-score)) + 40

 

points for fractures =

= MIN(42,(number of fractures)*14)

 

points for falls =

= MIN(15,(number of falls)*5)

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 193

• The higher the score the greater the risk of osteoporotic fracture.

 

Total Score

5-Year Risk

< 17.5

<1%

17.5 to 58.1

(0.09852 * (points)) - 0.724

58.1 to 152.9

(0.008 * ((points)^2)) - (0.7475 * (points)) + 20.54

> 152.9

> 90%

 

 

Total Score

10-Year Risk

< 39.5

< 5%

39.5 to 103.7

(0.009526 * ((points)^2)) - (0.6715 * (points)) + 16.86

103.7 to 151.2

(-0.01494 * ((points)^2)) + (4.867 * (points)) - 295

> 151.2

> 99%

 


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