Risk Score of Elbaz et al for Hypothermia in a Desert Climate

Description

Elbaz et al developed a risk score for hypothermia in a desert climate. This can help to identify a patient at risk for in-hospital mortality. The authors are from Asaf-Harofeh and Soroka University in Beer-Sheva, Israel, and Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center.

Patient selection: patient with hypothermia in a desert climate admitted to the hospital

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) mean arterial pressure

(3) arterial pH

(4) serum creatinine

(5) mental status

mean arterial pressure =

= ((systolic systemic arterial pressure) + (2 * (diastolic systemic arterial pressure))) / 3)

Parameter	Finding	Points
age in years	< 70 years of age	0
	>= 70 years of age	1
mean arterial pressure	>= 90 mm Hg	0
	< 90 mm Hg	1
arterial pH	>= 7.35	0
	< 7.35	1
serum creatinine	<= 1.5 mg/dL	0
	> 1.5 mg/dL	1
mental status	confused	3
	not confused	0

total score =

= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 7

• The higher the score the greater the risk of in-hospital mortality.

Total Score	Risk Group	In-Hospital Mortality
0 to 3	low	20%
4 or 5	intermediate	50%
6 or 7	high	81% (100% if 7)

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.81.

• The severity of the hypothermia per se was not a good predictor of in-hospital mortality.

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Description

Specialty

ICD-10