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Probability of Excessive Drinking Using the Logistic Regression Equations of Skinner et al

Purpose: To estimate the probability that a patient drinks excessive alcohol using the logistic regression equations of Skinner et al.

Description

Skinner et al developed logistic regression equations to predict the probability of excessive alcohol use in a patient. These combine the history of traumatic injury with laboratory test findings. The authors are from Toronto and Ottawa in Canada and Cleveland, Ohio.


Groups:

(1) patients in a family practice

(2) social drinker vs outpatient alcohol abuser

 

Parameters:

(1) history of traumatic injury (previous section, ranging from 0 to 5)

(2) mean corpuscular volume in femtoliters

(3) GGT in IU/L, transformed to the LOG10

(4) high density lipoprotein cholesterol in mg/dL

 

X for family practice patient =

= (0.59 * (trauma score)) + (0.25 * (MCV)) + (2.69 * (LOG10(GGT))) – (0.02 * (HDLC)) – 28.30

 

X for social drinker vs alcoholic =

= (0.83 * (trauma score)) + (0.16 * (MCV)) + (2.09 * (LOG10(GGT))) + (0.06 * (HDLC)) – 22.60

 

probability of excessive alcohol use =

= 1 / (1+ EXP((-1) * X))


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10