Model of Lee et al for Predicting the Risk of Coronary Artery Disease Within 10 Years

 

Patient selection: age 45 to 74 years, from Indian tribes with a high risk of diabetes

 

probability of being coronary heart disease free at 10 years =

= ([S0(10) baseline survival] ^ X

 

probability of developing coronary heart disease within 10 years =

= 1 - (([S0(10) baseline survival] ^ X)

 

Parameters:

(1) gender

(2) age

(3) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg

(4) LDL cholesterol in mg/dL

(5) total cholesterol in mg/dL

(6) HDL cholesterol in mg/dL

(7) diabetes mellitus

(8) current smoking

(9) hypertension medication

(10) microalbuminuria

(11) macroalbuminuria

Parameter	Finding	Points
diabetes mellitus	absent	0
	present	1
current smoking	absent	0
	present	1
hypertension medication	absent	0
	present	1
microalbuminuria	absent	0
	present	1
macroalbuminuria	absent	0
	present	1

 

where:

• Microalbuminuria and macroalbuminuria are mutually exclusive.

 

X for male using LDL-C =

= (0.0492 * (age in years)) + (0.0094 * (systolic blood pressure)) + (0.0106 * (LDL cholesterol)) - (0.0166 * (HDL cholesterol)) + (0.1776 * (points for hypertension therapy)) + (0.5105 * (points for diabetes)) + (0.3117 * (points for current smoking)) + (0.3087 * (points for microalbuminuria)) + (0.6965 * (points for macroalbuminuria))

 

X for female using LDL-C =

= (0.0382 * (age in years)) + (0.0049 * (systolic blood pressure)) + (0.0064 * (LDL cholesterol)) - (0.0122 * (HDL cholesterol)) + (0.3632 * (points for hypertension therapy)) + (0.7803 * (points for diabetes)) + (0.3624 * (points for current smoking)) + (0.2693 * (points for microalbuminuria)) + (0.9645 * (points for macroalbuminuria))

 

X for male using total cholesterol =

= (0.0485 * (age in years)) + (0.0088 * (systolic blood pressure)) + (0.0039 * (total cholesterol)) - (0.0152 * (HDL cholesterol)) + (0.1996 * (points for hypertension therapy)) + (0.4469 * (points for diabetes)) + (0.2914 * (points for current smoking)) + (0.2017 * (points for microalbuminuria)) + (0.6581 * (points for macroalbuminuria))

 

X for female using total cholesterol =

= (0.0383 * (age in years)) + (0.0048 * (systolic blood pressure)) + (0.0067 * (total cholesterol)) - (0.0133 * (HDL cholesterol)) + (0.3393 * (points for hypertension therapy)) + (0.7816 * (points for diabetes)) + (0.3590 * (points for current smoking)) + (0.2498 * (points for microalbuminuria)) + (0.8658 * (points for macroalbuminuria))

 

Gender	Cholesterol	S0(10)
male	LDL	0.9986
female	LDL	0.9971
male	total	0.9973
female	total	0.9982

 

The calculator is available at the Strong Heart website (strongheart.ouhc.edu)